4H FVG/Order Block Zone Retest with 15m Two-Candle Confirmation
A simplified, single-chart version of a 4H order block / FVG retest strategy was backtested on gold over five years with spread and financing included. It lost the whole account as posted and after tuning, and the 1H 20 MA variant and a zone-edge stop also lost. Adding a 4H 200 EMA trend filter cut losses to -2.25% on six unseen months but still didn't turn a profit.
From r/Daytrading. The idea, in our words: Mark 4-hour fair value gaps and order blocks, wait for price to return to one, enter on the 15-minute chart after two consecutive candles close in the trade direction, take 35% off at the 50/100 moving-average band, and trail the rest if price breaks through it.
no edgeAs posted · the rules as described (see what we assumed below)
Optimized: best settings Quant Core found · last months held back as unseen data
Improved: only trade with the trend (price above/below the 240min 200 EMA)
We then tried 6 changes a quant would test first (280 settings in all) and kept the best on past data only. The held-back months played no part in choosing it. It did not hold up on the unseen months.
What we had to assume
- The market is unspecified. The post says 'futures with 10x leverage', which most likely means crypto perpetuals, and none of the allowed markets is a clear fit.
- FVG uses the standard 3-candle gap definition. The order block is approximated as the last opposite-colored 4H candle before an FVG-creating move.
- A zone is invalidated once price trades fully through it.
- 'Two consecutive candle closes in the direction of the trade' is read as two candles each closing with close > open (long) or close < open (short).
- The 'tight stop-loss' is placed beyond the extreme of the touch bar and the two confirmation bars.
- The MAs are simple moving averages computed on the 15m chart.
- The MA band is checked on intrabar touch for TP1, and on a close beyond both MAs for the breakout.
- The trailing method is not given. It is approximated as breakeven, then a 15m swing-point trail using a 3-bar pivot.
A different reading of the rules could give a different result.
Backtested with the StratOS optimizer on historical data, with spread and costs charged, and the most recent months held back as unseen data. A backtest is not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.