GBPUSD Prior-Day High/Low Sweep with EURUSD SMT Reversal
A bare version of this GBPUSD prior-day sweep reversal ran without the SMT, higher-timeframe POI and 1-minute MSS/FVG entry steps. It lost 89% over five years with costs included, and losing months outnumbered winners 45 to 16. No tuned settings passed quality checks, and a 1-hour 200 EMA trend filter reduced losses but still lost money on the unseen months.
From r/Forex. The idea, in our words: Fade a sweep of GBPUSD's previous-day high or low when EURUSD fails to sweep its matching level, then enter on the first pullback into the 1-minute fair value gap left by the reversal move.
no edgeAs posted · the rules as described (see what we assumed below)
Optimization
No optimized configuration passed the minimum-trades and quality checks.
Improved: only trade with the trend (price above/below the 60min 200 EMA)
We then tried 8 changes a quant would test first (80 settings in all) and kept the best on past data only. The held-back months played no part in choosing it. It did not hold up on the unseen months.
What we had to assume
- HTF point of interest approximated as an unfilled 1H FVG containing the sweep extreme; the post allows a 1H/4H/daily OB or FVG chosen discretionarily
- SMT check: EURUSD has not breached its prior-day level at any time from the day open until the GBPUSD sweep bar
- Swing high/low for the MSS defined as a 3-bar fractal (bar extreme higher/lower than 1 bar on each side), with confirmation by candle close
- Order-block priority inside or below the FVG ignored; entry is always at the FVG edge
- Stop placed beyond the sweep extreme; the post gives no stop
- Take profit set at 2R; the post gives no exit
- Limit order cancelled if the sweep extreme is broken before the fill, or at the end of the day
- Maximum one trade per direction per day
A different reading of the rules could give a different result.
Backtested with the StratOS optimizer on historical data, with spread and costs charged, and the most recent months held back as unseen data. A backtest is not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.