Gold Asian-Session 15m Inverse FVG, 1:1 Target
A rules-based version of the gold Asian-session 15m inverse FVG setup with a 1:1 target lost 52% over five years in a backtest with spread and financing included. Tuned settings and a long-only version both looked profitable on the tuning months but lost money on six unseen months, though on few trades. Two other readings of the rules also lost money.
From r/Daytrading. The idea, in our words: During the Asian session on gold, trade the first fair value gap that price closes through (inverts) on the 15-minute chart, in the direction of the break, and take profit at a distance equal to the risk.
didn't hold upAs posted · the rules as described (see what we assumed below)
Optimized: best settings Quant Core found · last months held back as unseen data
Improved: take long trades only
We then tried 7 changes a quant would test first (560 settings in all) and kept the best on past data only. The held-back months played no part in choosing it. It did not hold up on the unseen months.
What we had to assume
- Asian session defined as 00:00–06:00 UTC
- IFVG defined as an FVG closed through by a subsequent candle body close
- Only FVGs formed during the same session qualify as 'newly created'
- Entry at the close of the inverting candle
- Stop placed at the inversion candle's extreme (post gives no stop)
- One trade per session
- Unresolved trades closed at session end
A different reading of the rules could give a different result.
Backtested with the StratOS optimizer on historical data, with spread and costs charged, and the most recent months held back as unseen data. A backtest is not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.