WE TESTED A COMMUNITY STRATEGY · XAUUSD 1min

Session Opening Range Breakout on Gold (15m Range, 1m Entry)

As posted, this gold opening-range breakout lost about 83% over 5 years with costs included. Tuning made it modestly profitable. Adding a 1-hour 200 EMA trend filter looked much stronger on past data but only just stayed positive (about 1.75%) on 6 unseen months, so the edge looks thin.

From r/Daytrading. The idea, in our words: Mark the high and low of the first 15 minutes of the Asian, London and New York sessions on gold, then trade a breakout of that range on the 1-minute chart with a fixed reward-to-risk target.

mixed

As posted · the rules as described (see what we assumed below)

-82.9%total return

0.92profit factor

34.5%win rate

86.7%max drawdown

4,586trades

5.0years tested

Optimized: best settings Quant Core found · last months held back as unseen data

+58.3%total return

1.03profit factor

37.4%win rate

54.9%max drawdown

3,438trades

1.08profit factor on unseen months

Improved: only trade with the trend (price above/below the 60min 200 EMA)

We then tried 11 changes a quant would test first (880 settings in all) and kept the best on past data only. The held-back months played no part in choosing it. It did not hold up on the unseen months.

+187.3%total return

1.07profit factor

37.2%win rate

31.2%max drawdown

2,785trades

1.01profit factor on unseen months

What we had to assume

The post says the range is 'the first two 15min candles' but gives 15-minute windows (e.g. 00:00–00:15). The range is taken as the single 15-minute window shown in the listed times.
New York range uses 13:00–13:15 UTC. The post also allows 12:00–12:15, depending on DST.
A breakout means a 1min candle closing beyond OPH/OPL, not an intrabar touch. The post only says breakouts are identified on the 1min chart.
Stop loss is placed at the opposite side of the opening range (OPL for longs, OPH for shorts). The post gives no stop rule.
Take profit is set at 2R as the default. The post shows both 1R and 2R trades.
Only the first breakout per session is traded, at most one trade per session.
If neither stop nor target is hit, the open trade is closed at the next session's range start. The post gives no time exit.
No confirmation or false-breakout filter is applied, because the post specifies none.

A different reading of the rules could give a different result.

Backtested with the StratOS optimizer on historical data, with spread and costs charged, and the most recent months held back as unseen data. A backtest is not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.

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